Lorient – Brest: Brest win at least one half – Yes

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March 30, 2024

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Our prediction: Lorient – Brest: Brest will win at least one half – Yes

31.03.2024 13:00

Sunday’s French Ligue 1 schedule kicks off with the prestigious regional Brittany derby between Lorient and Brest, with the two teams entering from two completely different positions. While Lorient are doing everything they can to stay above the relegation places, Brest are sensationally fighting for second place, and therefore direct qualification for the Champions League. Will the visitors confirm their role as paper favourites and beat their nearby rivals for the second time this season?

Lorient took Monaco by surprise last round, leading 1-0 from the first minute thanks to an own goal. However, coach Régis Le Bris’s charges also had a couple of weak passages in the match, during which they scored twice, but managed to level the match at the last moment after Imran Louza and Tiemoué Bakayoko’s cooperation in injury time to make it 2-2. The point gained from the favourite’s ground is worth gold for “Les Merlus” in the last eight rounds of the rescue fight and they would like to build on something similar at home, as they have been pretty much floundering there this season. Indeed, Lorient have won only one of their previous eight games at the Stade du Moustoir since the start of November (1-2-6), while the last two times they came up empty, they could muster only a single shot on target.

Brest also had reason to rejoice after the last round, because in the match against Lille, when they were not doing so well, Martin Satriano managed to save the “Pirates” with an equalizing goal, which was very important in a direct confrontation with a table rival. Coach Éric Roy’s squad thus retained second place ahead of Monaco, who were last beaten by Lorient, and also ahead of the aforementioned Lille. Kamory Doumbia, who decided Brest’s win with four goals in December and has been silent on the league scene since then, must be remembering the last game against Lorient very fondly. That could change as he made a significant contribution for the Mali national team with a goal during the week in their 2-0 win over this year’s Africa Cup of Nations finalist Nigeria, which could earn him a start in the starting line-up and could build on his recent performance against their regional rival.

What to bet on?

Lorient showed at Monaco that they can be a really unpleasant opponent for the favourite, but Brest will be careful about that, because this year they have clearly shown that they can handle similarly tense matches. We can’t expect too much of an eye-catching match, because it is a derby, and it often brings a lot of fouls and personal fights. In any case, I’m leaning towards the away side winning at least one of the halves. The double is also tempting, however, I’m put off by Lorient’s excellent finishes this season, which have earned them valuable points many times.

Confidence:

7/10

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