Pegula J. – Sabalenka A.: Sabalenka / + 17,5 gems

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September 8, 2024

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Our tip: Pegula J. – Sabalenka A.: Sabalenka / + 17,5 gems

07.09.2024 22:00

The women’s portion of this year’s US Open will culminate with the final match between American Jessica Pegula and Aryna Sabalenka of Belarus.

Pegula is a former world number three and current number six. In recent weeks, the daughter of a Buffalo billionaire has been in terrific form. In June, she dominated a grass-court event in Berlin. In mid-August, the 30-year-old American triumphed at the 1000 in Toronto. She subsequently extended her winning streak at another WTA 1000 event in Cincinnati. Coincidentally, it was her upcoming opponent who deprived her of her tenth win in a row.

At the US Open, her best result so far was the quarterfinals the year before. So far this year, she hasn’t lost a set in the tournament. She has beaten her compatriots Rogers (6:4, 6:3) and Kenin (7:6, 6:3), Spain’s Bouzas (6:3, 6:3), Russia’s Shnaider (6:4, 6:2), Poland’s Shwiatek (6:2, 6:4) and most recently, after a turnaround, Karolina Muchova (1:6, 6:4, 6:2).

Former world number one Sabalenka is currently ranked second. She is a two-time Grand Slam champion. She opened this season with a triumph at the Australian Open. She has also played finals in Brisbane, Madrid and Rome. At the latter two events, she lost to the number one ranked player, Poland’s Shwiatek, in the title match. At the last 1000 in Cincinnati, she avenged her defeat and went on to win her second title of the year. In the final, she coincidentally beat Pegula.

In New York, Sabalenka is in the final for the second year in a row. Last year she was beaten by another American, Gauff. Like Pegula, the Minsk native has also lost only one set in New York so far. She defeated Australian Honova (6:3, 6:3), Italian Bronzetti (6:3, 6:1), Russian Alexandrova (2:6, 6:1, 6:2), Belgian Mertens (6:2, 6:4), Chinese Cheng (6:1, 6:2) and American Navarro (6:3, 7:6).

What to bet on:

Sabalenka, who is seen as a big favourite in this final, leads 5:2 on the return match. As mentioned, the two players faced each other recently in Cincinnati. Pegula was then riding a streak of nine wins in a row, yet Sabalenka, who picked the only weak moment at the very end of the encounter, enjoyed a relatively smooth 6-3 and 7-5 triumph. The American is in a Grand Slam final for the first time and she already had a tough time against Muchova when she fended off a possibly crucial break point at 1:6 and 0:2. Sabalenka will capitalize on her experience and physical superiority to celebrate winning her third Grand Slam. We recommend mixing the odds on her victory with a bet on at least 18 games played. We can’t expect an outright debacle in such a big final.

Trust:

8/10

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