Presidential election Slovakia – 1st round: winner Pellegrini

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March 23, 2024

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Our pick: Presidential election Slovakia – 1st round: winner Pellegrini

23.03.2024 07:00

The first round of the presidential elections in Slovakia starts on Saturday. Ten candidates are running for the top post, but practically eight of them have no chance of making it to the second round. Zuzana Čaputová has decided not to defend the post of president.

The overall victory should be decided between the pair of Peter Pellegrini and Ivan Korčok. The former prime minister of Slovakia is the paper favourite, with the HLAS party behind him, as well as a large SMER voter base, where he has worked in tandem with Róbert Fico in the past. Peter Pellegrini is thus a well-known personality to all people in Slovakia, which is a huge advantage. As a personality, he also has undeniable visual charisma, which is an integral part of what leads to success. In his political career, he has tried to maintain a certain tone, which has differentiated him significantly from other Slovak politicians such as Kotleba, Harabín, Maťovič and Fico. His electoral potential is thus high, especially if he can pick up the votes of most of the eliminated candidates in the second round.

Ivan Korčok is then the obvious choice for the core voters of the current president who want to steer Slovakia westwards. The former foreign minister is also an experienced politician, but nowhere near as popular as his main rival. In the recent past, he disappeared for two years as a diplomat to the United States, an imaginary dividing line for many residents, especially in the villages. Korčok has this in common to some extent with Pellegrini, whose aforementioned alliance with the current prime minister.

Thus, the two potential presidents divide the society, which can be seen well in the polls. Both of them can count on a strong voter base, just in different age groups, which is also influenced by education. In the first round, one could even expect an even fight, with both candidates in the top two percent, in horse-race terminology, Pellegrini leading by a head. This did not change after Tuesday’s presidential debate, which was mostly moderate in their performance.

What to bet on:

Pellegrini is the biggest favourite for the Slovak presidency thanks to his political past and general familiarity.He should get more votes in the first round, as the older generation of voters is more disciplined. The main rallying of Ivan Korčok’s voters will not happen until the second round, but even that will not be enough.

Confidence:

6/10

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