US presidential election: winner Trump D.

EnBookmaker

Analyses

July 7, 2024

29 Views

Our pick: US presidential election: winner Trump D.

05.11.2024 07:00

This year’s U.S. presidential election promises, as usual, a tense and balanced political battle between Republicans and Democrats, in which a non-partisan member of the famous Kennedy family would also like to intervene. The new head of state is expected to be announced in early November.

US elections – can Kennedy succeed?

Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is certainly an interesting name given American political history. The Kennedy family has held important political positions in the country since the 19th century, which is a compelling story that many people still hear today. In addition, Kennedy Jr. may have interesting electoral potential, as it is not only within the ranks of Democrats and Republicans that some of their own candidates are unacceptable. But it looks more like a battle of political matadors between the president and the ex-president.

Presidential election – will Biden defend his victory?

The US presidency will be defended anyway Joe Biden. The Scranton native is now 81 years old, and his age and health are a clear handicap for many politicians and voters. Then there are the shaky issues – the Middle East and the Economy. In particular, the wars in Ukraine and Israel and, of course, the cost of aid to allies, which is astronomical. At home, too, there are heavy topics such as migration or the drugs issue, where not much has been improved. Thus, dissatisfaction with the Biden administration is already reflected in the swing states, which have on U.S. elections major impact.

The situation in the American swing states

In the last election, the swing states had the upper hand Joe Bidenbut now leads in six of seven Trump, in Wisconsin that’s a tie so far. V Nevada or North Carolina leads Trump even by seven percentage points or more, which would be difficult to make up. In other swing states that have been leaning one way or the other over the years (Giorgia, Arizona, Michigan, Pennsylvania) it’s within three percent, which can be taken as a reconciliation within the statistical margin of error. Biden is losing younger voters in particular, in whom he last had more support, and also the Arab community.

US election 2024 – will Trump return to the White House?

Donald Trump is on the contrary “on a roll”, although there is still dirty laundry in the public space, in the form of assault on the Capitol or sex with a female companion, but the former president is used to such cases and they do not bother him much. This could change if the court decides, of course, but it is questionable whether the judiciary will allow itself to influence the distribution of the current forces relatively shortly (six months) before the elections.

Trump is also not one of the young men, but his speech is a bit more predatory and can arouse more emotion. His health also looks a little better than Biden’s, which may be a partial signal to early voters. A partial hint will be the peer debates, which start at the end of June.

US election – more presidential candidates?

The chances of the other candidates taking the White House are relatively slim, although names like Michelle Obama and Kamala Harris are well known in the United States.

What to bet on:

Tandem most likely to clash again for the presidency of the United States Biden – Trump, but the incumbent head of state has not used his time ideally, which is reflected in the midterm polls. Both the media in America and bettors in the Czech Republic are so far slightly favouring a return Donald Trump to lead the world’s number one superpower.

Confidence:

6/10

Recommended bookmaker for this bet: